Day 1 (12/7), Session 1 (12 - 3 PM EST): Introduction
  1. Course Introduction
  2. Participant / Instructor Introductions
  3. Technological Test Run
Day 1 (12/7), Session 2 (3 - 6 PM EST): Probability
  1. What Sets Bayes Apart?
  2. Confidence envelopes Exercise

Day 2 (12/8), Session 1 (12 - 3 PM EST): Probability
  1. Rules of Probability
  2. Probability Lab 1
Day 2 (12/8), Session 2 (3 - 6 PM EST): Probability Distributions
  1. Probability Concepts and Notation
  2. Probability Distributions + Boardwork
  3. Probability Lab 2
  4. Distribution Cheatsheet

Review Hobbs and Hooten chapters 1-3.


Day 3 (12/9), Session 1 (12 - 3 PM EST): Marginal Distributions
  1. Marginal Distributions
  2. Probability Lab 3
Day 3 (12/9), Session 2 (3 - 6 PM EST): Moment Matching
  1. Moment Matching
  2. Probability Lab 4

Review Hobbs and Hooten chapters 1-3.


Day 4 (12/10), Session 1 (12 - 3 PM EST): Lab Catchup
  1. Catch up on previous labs
Day 4 (12/10), Session 1 (12 - 3 PM EST): Likelihood
  1. Likelihood
  2. Likelihood Lab
  3. Likelihood Lab Excel File & Answer

Review Hobbs and Hooten chapters 3.5-4.


Day 5 (12/11), Session 1 (12 - 3 PM EST): Bayes Theorem
  1. Bayes’ Theorem
  2. Bayes’ Theorem Lab
Day 5 (12/11), Session 2 (3 - 6 PM EST): Writing Models
  1. Writing Models Boardwork

Review Hobbs and Hooten chapters 5.


Day 6 (12/14), Session 1 (12 - 3 PM EST): Priors
  1. More about Priors I
  2. Priors Lab 1
  3. Beta-binomial Conjugacy Derivation
Day 6 (12/14), Session 2 (3 - 6 PM EST): Markov chain Monte Carlo
  1. MCMC Gibbs Sampling
  2. MCMC Lab 1
  3. MCMC Gibbs Sampling Math

Review Hobbs and Hooten chapters 5 and 7.


Day 7 (12/15): JAGS Primer
  1. Introduction to MCMC software / Group Session Review
  2. JAGS Primer & Lab Answers

Day 8 (12/16), Session 1 (12 - 3 PM EST): Model Inference
  1. Inference From a Single Model
  2. JAGS Problems Lab
Day 8 (12/16), Session 2 (3 - 6 PM EST): Bayesian Regression
  1. Bayesian Regression
  2. Lognormal Explanation

Review Hobbs and Hooten chapter 7-8.


Day 9 (12/17), Session 1 (12 - 3 PM EST): Multi-Level Modeling
  1. Multi-Level Modeling
Day 9 (12/17), Session 2 (3 - 6 PM EST): Multi-Level Modeling
  1. Multi-Level Modeling Lab

Review Hobbs and Hooten chapters 6, 10-12.


Day 10 (12/18), Session 1 (12 - 3 PM EST): Multi-Level Modeling
  1. Writing Hierarchical Models
  2. Writing Hierarchical Models Lab
Day 10 (12/18), Session 2 (3 - 6 PM EST): Model Checking
  1. Model Checking
  2. Model Checking Lab
  3. Course Evaluation Survey

Review Hobbs and Hooten chapters 6, 10-12.


Additional Topics